Topical Techno: 2012

The Cyber Sages
of Synchroncity

From the Editor: These quotes were collected one decade ago. Let's see how well they did in predicting the future!

Jon Katz
Slashdot.org
jonkatz@slashdot.org

I guess the open source idea is the biggest idea currently coming off of the Internet, the one that will most directly impact on education, politics, business and entertainment. The liberating of information digitally is the single most important and transformative happening in the modern history of information, past the printing press. The net is an open medium, the openness built into its architecticture. This sets up an enormous conflict...between cultural forces that are open and distributive and those that are proprietary and closed. The music fight is just round one, and it isn't clear yet who's won. The ones to follow -- involving openness and politics, education, media -- will really be hummers.

Nana Naisbitt
Co-author of "High Tech High Touch"
with John Naisbitt
Smithsonian Research Collaborator
Writing book called "Dinosaurs in Your Back Yard"
nana@naisbitt.com

While debates promise to rage through this year and beyond over the Internet's disruption of traditionally protected intellectual property rights, another quieter revolution is taking place. Taxonomy, the explorer's science of new species discovery still steeped in Victorian Age practices, is finally embracing 20th century technology. The International Code of Nomenclature has approved the publication of new species online, dropping the formal requirement of hard-copy print publication, enabling taxonomists to publish their discoveries in real time. This relaxed policy, coupled with an audacious initiative by the All Species Foundation to discover and name all the species on earth within the next 25 years, will send detailed species Web pages online at an accelerating clip. With only 1.7 million species named to date, and another 100 million yet to be found, there will be no end to voyeuristic discovery and wonder at 4 billion years of evolution.

Douglas Rushkoff
Author of "Coercion," "Media Virus," "Playing the Future," "Ecstasy Club," and the upcoming novel, "Bull"

The big story of 2001 will be that, in spite of the dot.com debacle, the Internet----the real Internet----will have been chugging along quite splendidly the whole time. Sure, a huge number of businesspeople used the word "Internet" as the rationale behind an even greater number of pyramid schemes. And yes, most of those schemes collapsed as surely as any Ponzie will. But while the Internet's role as a public relations strategy for the NASDAQ exchange will have been deemed a failure, the people developing and using the greatest technological infrastructure yet devised by our civilization will have continued to network, exchange information, and develop new ways for people to communicate across boundaries that once seemed impassable. The Internet as an investment vehicle will be superceded by its original function as an interpersonal facilitator.

Cecilia Pagkalinawan
CEO and founder of BoutiqueY3K.com, New York City

Much of the growth and reach of the Internet will slow down in 2001 while sectors such as government, corporations, and investors regroup and review their strategies. With the investment slowdown, R&D and innovation will be hurt tremendously and not many new products will be developed. Culturally, the Internet will grow to be more powerful as more and more people, particularly the youth culture, embrace the Internet as their primary method of communication and source of information.

At the end of 2001, what will stand as the big event(s) of the year? I hate to say this, but more of the train wreck we're experiencing right now will occur in 2001. After the extensive damages which will occur with companies shutting down and employees losing their jobs, we'll see an older but wiser industry that will continue to grow and flourish, but in a more tempered and humbled way.

Mark Hurst
Founder and president of CreativeGood.com, an e-commerce research and consultancy based in New York City

Two Thousand and One will be the year that Internet users begin to feel some information overload. People will receive more and more e-mail (including "spam" and other annoying promotional e-mails) and will find it difficult to sift through thousands of irrelevant website search results. At work, many people will find more and more digital files and folders awaiting their attention. The spread of cell phones, Palm Pilots, and other "bit devices" will make life even more complicated for people trying to get online.

Users will demand a simpler online experience, as they have for years, but 2001 will be when they yearn for "less information". Personally, I hope that in 2001 I'll help companies learn that "less is more" when it comes to bits and other digital information.

Andres Heuberger
CEO of fxtrans.com, a Web site localization firm which deals with issues of translating sites to meet international language and legal standards

The U.S. role in the world will diminish as the Web expands internationally. Non-English Web sites used to be the exception. During 2001, they will become the rule.

As U.S. companies launch an intensive fight to win the minds and pocketbooks of consumers whose first language is not English, the Web will shift from being a primarily English medium to one where non-English content dominates.

This breakneck transformation will benefit corporations as well as consumers:

---- More multilingual sites will improve the user experience for consumers worldwide and allow organizations to provide better support to international customers.

----As English loses its position as the lingua franca of the Internet, this strengthened language support will enhance the flow of information across borders, cultures, and languages.

----Improvements in the areas of foreign currency conversions and international fulfillment will support language efforts and help companies expand global ecommerce opportunities

In 2001, the Internet is finally breaking out of its English-only, U.S.-centric cocoon.

Esther Dyson
founder of Edventures Holdings, an Internet investment and incubation firm, and Chairman of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) the organization now responsible for administering the domain name assignment system

One significant event of 2000 is the selection of seven new genericTop-Level Domains to add to the Domain Name System. In addition to .com, .net and .org, we will soon have .biz, .info, .museum, .aero, .coop, .name and .pro, reducing the artificial scarcity of the current system. The benefits are more "space" in the Domain Name System ---- call it the Net's real estate ---- and more competition among the TLDs. Ultimately, that should provide better services, and better quality. Now you can register your business's name in .biz, or if you're a doctor or lawyer, you can register in .pro. Museums get .museum, and so forth. Over time, I hope that there will be many more, and that the role of ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers), which chose them, will diminish. Competition is a better regulator than any single agency ever could be.

Daryhl Stultz
MIS IT Guide
About.com

I see the wireless internet trend continuing and expanding in 2001. This is good news for the wireless companies that furnish the air time and devices; it is bad news for the internet content companies----there just is no profit in providing all of those stock quotes, weather and sports scores for free. There is no room on the screens of the WAP phones and wireless PDAs for advertising.

I think 2001 will be the year of the WebPad wireless devices. The form factor is perfect----they are the size of the writing tablets that we all carry and use. With their large touchscreens and wireless portablility, we can use them in meetings, while watching TV from our favorite recliner or out by poolside.

Honeywell debuted a WebPad at Comdex based on the National Seminconductor specification and processor. It uses a short-range radio base station that allows fast web surfing within 150 feet. The base station can handle up to eight WebPads, making it perfect for home use----mom, dad and the kids can each have their own unit and all can surf and send/receive email at the same time. It includes a mini-version of a word processor and a USB port for external keyboard and mouse.

By 2002, we hopefully will begin to see WebPads that connect directly to our ISPs instead of being tethered to the 150-foot base station.

Len Bullard
Computer Scientist
Contributor G21.net
Other strange and inscrutable associations

It gets weirder every day and because we learned nothing from Zorba the

Greek, we just don't know when to "let go of the rope."

The kids get it.

http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=00/10/23/1521250&mode=thread

They are even smart enough to use the FBI UCR reports. They know where the feedback loops are to policy. Is anyone listening? I know the UCR well.

NIBRS is the replacement model and it is national and being installed in

more police stations every day. What do we say about that model? The kids

know it is there. Do you? Do you think you should care as long as the

professionals who design it and apply it are competent? What is thoughtful

action and what is habit, Mr. Chips?

Oh we can be as weird as we think we are, put on trench coats, take up

arms, chill our parents and the kids on the playground next to us, but for

how long? Kids soon find just as my generation found that we need certain

things and we trade big freedoms for little securities. Yet, the evil we

fear becomes the thump on the annealing pot of societal metal. It whips us,

beats us, makes us write bad checks. All the while, every time two

opposites collide, a control emerges. That is how emergent behavior works.

I don't fear the credit system and what "they say." I was an entertainer

and a theater geek before I became a computer scientist. I learned to

control the appearance, ride the syncopation of language, and master the

curl in the wave where the fast ride is. "It's all for the show, ya know"

Ol' ScratchJagger told us. I use the system. I like the system. It suits my

purpose. Who chooses my purpose? I do.

Can I escape the system?

Well, "Do you know exactly how to eat an Oreo?"

Pat Gelsinger
Chief Technology Officer and Vice President
Intel Architecture Group

The year 2001 may see the emergence peer-to-peer computing models on the Internet in new and innovative ways. With peer-to-peer computing home or business computers are collectively linked together via the Internet to tackle massive data crunching challenges. For businesses this means more efficient uses of their computer equipment investments. And for consumers this means a wide array of new services for media distribution and sharing content with family and friends. Consumers may even dedicate computing power and/or file storage space of the PC they use only a percentage of the day to make meaningful contributions to programs and causes such as their local schools, foundations or research efforts. A great pioneering example that's been around for a number of years is the famous SETI project that pools the resources of thousands of PCs around the world. For additional information, here is an August press release on Peer-to-Peer: http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/cn082400.htm

Mike Rosen
CEO and President 2Ce Inc.
www.2Ce.com

In 1994 Netscape radically changed the Internet by giving what has been

previously only a text-based environment a visual interface. By using the

page metaphor as a design guideline, the Internet became a visual electronic

magazine that could bring pictures and links to everyone's desktop. This was

a major shift in how the Internet functioned and how it would evolve over the next six years.

This year, the big news is convergence, or the coming together of all

electronic devices to what will eventually be one small wearable or handheld

gismo, that will have all the functionality of the cell phone, PDA, and

computer. While this is truly a significant accomplishment, in my opinion it

will be overshadowed by the Internet discovering the 3rd dimension.

Several companies have been experimenting with three dimensional interfaces to the Internet, and now, with the increase of bandwidth some will become practical. What the third dimension will do to the Internet is hard to

predict, but it will definitely change the metaphor from the "page" to the

"space." Having the ability to navigate into the "z" dimension will create

information and entertainment content akin to video game environments.

Our company 2ce Inc. is committed to the concept that more efficient

information transfer and a fun browsing metaphor will revolutionize how

people interact with all the rich content that exists and that will exist as

a result of the Internet becoming 3D.

Howard Rheingold
hlr@well.com
http://www.rheingold.com
Webcam: http://www.vcbconsulting.com/users/oinkfest

Democracy is not just about voting. It's about citizens who are literate enough, free enough, and have the means to discuss the issues that concern us. In the age of mass media, only those wealthy politicians who had the money to buy advertising had the power to influence others. Now, the Internet makes every desktop computer a printing press, broadcasting station, and place of assembly. Millions of people join email groups, chat rooms, and bulletin boards to have social discussions about issues that concern them. But the popular media have not sufficiently publicized or explained the social uses of the Internet, so it has been confined to the millions of pioneers and early adopters. Now, however, the use of the Internet for social communication is becoming more widely known. The next step is for people to learn to use these media as citizens.

Erik Davis
Author of "Techgnosis: Myth, Magic & Imagination in the Age of Information," www.levity.com/techgnosis, contributing editor to Feed www.feedmag.com, and Wired magazine

Where the action is going to be is what happens as the network extends into physical space. The presence of robotic servants, information available by a touch of a sensor, the wireless Web crossing through physical space … cyberspace used to be this other place you went to, but you would not really be there.

Now that whole world is feeding back into the material world, and it's going everywhere, through your cell phone, your hand-held device, Palm Pilot and so on. It's all just an operation of people pursuing immediate goals out of basic activities. But we are building this hyper-dimensional virtual city that we really don't know is there. Where does my world stop, and where does the other world begin----all of those boundaries are becoming more and more fluid. As this stuff becomes more permeable, and one the thing we lose is a certain kind of silence. We lose solitude.

In not much time, people in the developed world will find that time spent offline will be increasingly valuable. People will say, more and more, 'Hey, I'm going offline for the weekend.'

Wayne Madsen
Electronic Information Privacy Center
Senior Fellow
Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC)
Washington, DC
www.epic.org

The growing demand for on-line privacy will dominate technical, legal, and cultural issues involving the Internet. A number of polls, including a recent Gallup poll, illustrate that Americans are equally concerned about corporate and government snooping into their electronic mail, transactions, and other Internet usage.

A deadlocked Congress and an initial weakened Presidency will mean that Americans will see little in the way of meaningful privacy legislation, even though a number of successful congressional candidates ran on promises to increase privacy protections. However, a presidency that may be seen by an inflamed sector of Internet-savvy Americans as illegitimate could mean an increase in the use of government Internet surveillance programs, particularly the e-mail snooping system known as Carnivore. That may be the biggest event at the end of the year and it will further widen the gulf between the government and cyberlibertarians.

The Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC) will meticulously track and report on all privacy developments throughout 2001."

Dr. Julian Lombardi, Ph. D.
www.Vios.com
Founder, Chairman & Chief Creative Officer

In 2001, we will see the first "Post-Browser Internet" applications. A new wave of Internet visualization technologies----combining rich interfaces, better organization of information, and powerful applications----will rise to challenge the flat, browser-based Internet we see today.

The way individuals use, 'see' and access digital information today is in large part a function of technology limitations that existed years ago when the browser became the dominant means of viewing the Internet. As new, advanced technologies - faster processors, powerful video cards, broadband connections - become ubiquitous, we'll see a dramatic shift in the way people interact with the digital world and with each other.

'Post-Browser' interfaces will make it possible to compress information into a visual experience in a way that people can understand. In short: a picture is worth at least a thousand words. Hardware and software advances will lead to the development and adoption of visual browser alternatives----3D Internet environments that far surpass anything that has previously existed on the Web.

The limitations of the Web page-based 'browser' and the clumsiness of today's search engines have already become clear to many. The current movement to whittle down the Internet into a search engine, start page or mobile phone screen will be challenged by advanced, rich, "sticky" new interfaces that make it easy and fun for people to navigate the vast Internet landscape. Do you really think the mobile phone screen can replace the PC and provide a satisfying, fun, powerful Internet experience? No.

And these new applications will not only help users get more from their online experience. They will deliver new ways for businesses to stand out from the crowd. Businesses tired of largely ineffective and increasingly expensive banner advertising will seek out----and find----new, exciting alternatives in the "Post-Browser" environment.

There's a fundamental flaw in today's Internet----a limited, out-dated, flat interface that can't handle the explosive growth in information volume or technical capability. A vast, largely untapped wealth of information, social interaction and community is out there. New interfaces will help people get more out of their Internet experience. In 2001, software innovators will begin unleashing applications that will transform the way the Internet looks and works.

Jeff Einstein
Director of Interactive North America
RappDigital
New York

Regarding major technical shifts: More often than not, technological innovations precede the business models that ultimately dictate their application. Accordingly, innovations in wireless, pervasive computing, and ITV will continue to accelerate while media franchises trail behind in pursuit of related and appropriate ROI models. The year 2001 will also see accelerated movement away from server log analysis tools to ASP service models -- with existentially secure content----wherein each content element is tagged and reports directly to a central datamart for cyberanalysis. Content tagging represents a shift away from the destination dot com model and concurrent movement towards a more appropriate content syndication model with significant ROI and cyberanalytic implications.

Re legal/cultural shifts ...

The shift from the destination dot com model to syndication also

parallels a shift away from the branded advertising model to more accountable ROI-based, data-driven models. Content producers will now not only be liable for content that appears on their sites, but for content that is syndicated across thousands of sites as well----with clear legal and cultural

implications.The role of content also changes within the syndication

model.Whereas the primary function of content within the branded ad

model is to provide a suitable environment for branded ad messages, the

content in an interactive syndication environment must also serve to collect

valuable data for future analysis and optimization. Moreover, the data-driven syndication model raises serious privacy issues. The more information we request, the greater our obligation to deal ethically with the resulting data. Privacy issues, however, will likely take a back seat to consumer convenience----as always.

Tim Berners-Lee
w3.org

You probably have a lot of people using XML by now. You should have someone looking at the next level----RDF. Tell them not to worry about the syntax, but check out the model. This is a question of looking the data your company is storing and transferring, and making sure that it can be represented in that simple circles-and-arrows RDF way.

This is very simple. An important trick is that you use URIs to identify the arrows as well as the circles. Doing this homework will ensure that you have a well-defined data model, which will allow you data to be combined, merged with any other RDF-model data.

It will mean you will be able to multiply the power of separate application areas by running RDF queries and new RDF-based applications across both areas. It will mean that you will be there with talent which understands the basic model as the Semantic Web becomes all-important.

Other things to watch: SVG - Scalable Vector Graphics - at last, graphics which can be rendered optimally on all sizes of device. XML Signature will let you to digitally sign XML documents - find out how. But in general, always check out the W3C home page for what's new.

Dr. Leonard Adelman
behavioral psychologist, The Dot-Com Group
len@thedotcomgroup.com

We have to address the 'Usability Crisis." The industry has to try to make the Internet as easy as possible to use by improving the quality of the experience. According to the Boston Consulting Group, the conversion rate of users at any e-commerce site to people actually making a purchase is less than 2 percent. We are loosing billions and billions of dollars … that usability crisis is turning into lots of dollars lost. In the upcoming year more sites will be trying to adapt to user's behavior----in real time----in order to allow them to be able do their jobs online, make easier transactions, make it easier to achieve their goals. They will be working to improve that, what I call the "action image," as well as the "goal

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